The Democrats have been beset, since Biden’s poor debate performance with questions about his viability as the Democratic presidential nominee. Of course, there were concerns about Biden’s ability to beat Trump in November even before the debate with many polls showing Trump with a slight lead in the presidential match-up. The debate, which the Biden campaign had hoped would assuage Democratic voters’ concerns about Biden’s age, only highlighted the issue and reinforced the impression that the President has aged considerably since he was elected in 2020.
Debate: Episode or Condition?
In the days immediately following the debate, one of the key questions bouncing around online was whether Biden’s debate performance was merely an “episode” or whether it speaks to an actual “condition.” Biden has admitted, and his campaign has repeatedly stated, that he had a “bad night.” Biden himself has said that he was sick, and had undergone testing —including a negative COVID test— but that it was determined that he was only suffering from a “bad cold.” His voice was of course quite hoarse, and it was difficult at times to discern what he was saying. His campaign has also said that he was exhausted and that he had been traveling internationally just prior to the debate. That said, he spent nearly a week at Camp David prepping for the debate.
Can Biden’s Campaign Be Salvaged?
In the aftermath of the debate, Democrats have had to ponder whether there is any way of salvaging his candidacy, or if he needs to be replaced as the Democratic nominee just weeks before the DNC Convention.
But can Biden be replaced at this point? This depends on how he is replaced. Does he voluntarily step down, or is he challenged at the Convention? If he steps down, that is, if he withdraws from the race, his delegates would likely be “freed” to pledge their support to another candidate. They would become “uncommitted” delegates at the Convention. When Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips withdrew from the Democratic presidential primaries back in March, this is what happened. His delegates were released to support other candidates.
As was reported, back in 2016, then-DNC Chair, Donna Brazile, had contemplated what replacing a nominee would look like after Hillary Clinton had what appeared to be a fainting episode following a 9/11 memorial in New York City.
What If Biden Will Not Step Down?
But the bigger question is what happens if Biden refuses, as he has so far done, to drop out of the race. Is it possible to challenge his nomination at this point? Most commentators are of the opinion that there is no “realistic” way to remove him unless he voluntarily agrees to step aside. And, in an ordinary election, they would probably be right. But, for many Democrats, this is no ordinary election. The stakes in this election, in the minds of many Democratic voters, are so high that it is pushing them into uncharted territory where they and party leaders are both contemplating a challenge to Biden. Such an outcome seems more and more likely, maybe unavoidable at this point.
Party Rules
Democratic Party rules can be read in such a way that allows for delegates pledged to Biden and that he won in state primaries and caucuses, to possibly support another candidate. The Party rules state “Delegates elected to the national convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.” Now, you might ask yourself what does this language mean, specifically the phrase “good conscience”? One interpretation is that delegates are not “bound” to a specific candidate.
Democratic Party rules used to be more explicit. They used to compel a delegate to support a specific candidate. During the 1980 campaign, for instance, the DNC adopted precisely such a rule in part to fend off Senator Ted Kennedy’s challenge to Jimmy Carter’s reelection campaign. After Carter’s defeat, however, the rules were changed to the current language, which at least in theory can be read to entertain the possibility that delegates could bolt from their pledged candidates under extraordinary circumstances.
Challenge to Biden at the Convention
What would this look like? To derail Biden’s nomination, 50% of the 3,896 delegates currently pledged to him would either have to not vote or vote for another candidate on the first ballot at the Convention. That is a very large number of delegates, more than 1,900 delegates (1,948). Remember, there are also “super-delegates” or what the party calls “automatic” delegates made up of current and former state and national party leaders. There are more than 700 of them, but unless otherwise permitted, they are not allowed to vote in the first round of voting.
And there is evidence that Democratic Party officials have begun to discuss what different scenarios, particularly Biden dropping out, would look like in terms of amended party rules. Another variable that needs to be considered is the fact that the DNC Roll Call is taking place virtually this year, starting later this month. Moreover, anything that does unfold at the Convention, other than Biden being confirmed as the party’s nominee would raise serious questions about democratic process since the will of primary and caucus voters would be subverted.
The 1968 Example
Something similar happened in 1968 after President Johnson dropped out and Vice President Humphrey was nominated at the Convention without running in any state primaries. It was his subsequent defeat to Richard Nixon that prompted a series of reform commissions and rule changes in the Democratic Party.
If Not Biden, Then Who?
If delegates did bolt from Biden in the first round, it is not clear, at the moment, where they would go. There are no candidates at the moment. The names mostly commonly floated — Vice President Kamala Harris, Governor Gavin Newsom of California, and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan — are, at the moment, all still publicly supporting Biden. Of course, this could change, and change fast.
Biden’s Performance as President Has Been Strong
The irony for Biden, for most Presidents, is that the real test of whether or not they can do the job is what they have done while in office, yet this is rarely what they are judged on. Biden’s record is quite strong. Overall, he has been a rather effective President . He has passed several pieces of landmark legislation — the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, the American Rescue Plan, The Safer Communities Act, The Inflation Reduction Act. But unfortunately, as is highlighted in the scholarly literature, in contemporary US politics, accomplishments rarely speak for themselves. Rather, they have to be communicated, and not merely on official channels, but as part of a highly targeted and disciplined communications strategy.
Presidents running for reelection –or campaigning for the party in a midterm– often struggle with this, as Biden’s campaign has. We saw something similar back in 1994 when advisors told then-President Bill Clinton (who did fail to pass comprehensive health care reform) that the public was uncertain about what he had done as president and that it was going to hurt the Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections. Clinton was baffled by this. That November, the Republicans won a majority in both houses of Congress for the first time in more than 40 years.
Presidents struggle to understand why they are not getting the credit they deserve for what they have done while in office. Their response, more often than not, is to rely on a simple itemizing of their accomplishments as if, that alone, will convey what they have been able to achieve. Biden used just such a tact in his interview with George Stephanopoulos on ABC News when asked why voters should support him. He had done all these things for the American people, he responded. And, objectively, he has. What he, and his campaign has struggled to do is present these accomplishments as part of a highly digestible core claim or message that voters can easily recall, whether in conversations with undecided friends and family, or, mostly importantly, after they pull the curtain at the ballot box.
Biden Post-Debate Polling Numbers
Biden’s post-debate numbers, in at least in some of the national polling should be both reassuring and concerning for his campaign. For example, an NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll released on July 12 found that Biden and Trump are still statistically tied. But it also found that 4 in 10 Democrats think Biden “lacks the mental fitness to be president.” However, it seems that what is keeping Biden in the race is the concerns voters have about Biden’s age is being offset by equally pressing concerns they have about Trump’s character and truthfulness. 58% of Independents in the poll, for instance, felt that Trump “does not have the character to serve as president.” Interestingly, each of the top possible Democratic alternatives — Harris, Newsom and Whitmer — beat Trump in the poll, but the numbers are all within the margin of error.
Biden FR Numbers
But, in US politics, it is not public opinion alone that matters. Another key factor is fundraising viability. Here, for the Biden team, there is some cause for concern. It has been reported that several of Biden’s big bundlers and donors have paused they’re operations and their giving. Not surprisingly, they are being impacted by the same doubts and disagreements about Biden’s candidacy that are washing over the party more broadly. George Clooney’s call in a New York Times op-ed for Biden to step down, despite being, as Clooney described himself, a “proud” Democratic who had recently “co-hosted the single largest fund-raiser supporting any Democratic candidate ever, for President Biden’s re-election” is, at the moment, the most high-profile example of the uncertainty gripping the party’s big donors. “We are not going to win in November with this President,” Clooney wrote. “On top of that, we won’t win the House, and we’re going to lose the Senate,” he continued.
What Party Leaders Are Doing
We know party leaders have been conferring, both publicly and behind closed doors since the debate about what to do: Should they support Biden or get behind calls for him to withdraw from the race. The number of party leaders calling for him to withdraw has grown by the day, yet so far he has retained the public support of most of party’s top congressional leaders.
What Should Biden Do?
It is difficult to say what Biden can do at this point to shake the perception that he is not up to the task of beating Trump in the fall election. He has been strongest on the campaign trail, where he appears most comfortable. But several of the major events that his campaign has rolled out since the debate — the TV interviews, the press conferences — have been marred by their own gaffes.